Architectural Cases

The traditional four-year halving cycle, a cornerstone of Bitcoin's market analysis, is now under intense examination by leading traders. Doubts are emerging regarding its continued relevance, with observations suggesting a departure from predictable post-halving market peaks. This evolving landscape indicates a maturation of the cryptocurrency market, where new drivers like institutional engagement and global liquidity may be reshaping Bitcoin's price trajectory and future growth.

As the market moves beyond established historical patterns, the focus shifts to understanding these new influences. This transition marks a significant moment for investors, prompting a reevaluation of strategies and expectations for digital assets. The future of Bitcoin's market behavior appears less tethered to past cyclical movements and more aligned with broader economic forces and sustained investor interest.

The Shifting Paradigm of Bitcoin's Market Cycles

The established four-year halving cycle, which historically dictated Bitcoin's market peaks 12-18 months after each halving event, is showing signs of weakening, according to prominent market analysts. With Bitcoin currently approximately 1,080 days past its most recent major low, the anticipated euphoric market phase, typically characterized by significant altcoin activity and widespread positive sentiment, has not materialized. This deviation suggests that market participants may have front-run the cycle, leading to an early distribution of assets and subsequently diluting the impact of traditional post-halving rallies. This premature selling could pave the way for a more stable, liquidity-driven market extending well into 2026.

Analyst Scott Melker, also known as The Wolf Of All Streets, highlighted that previous Bitcoin tops occurred around 1,060-1,070 days after a major cycle low. However, the current period, which has exceeded this timeframe without the expected market excitement, raises questions about the validity of relying solely on historical data points. Melker emphasized the statistical weakness of a model based on only three previous cycles, suggesting that popular indicators like MVRV, HODL Waves, and Puell Multiple have also shown inconsistencies. The sentiment is echoed by other traders, such as Decode, who views the halving as a psychological relic, arguing that Bitcoin's price movements are now more closely correlated with global liquidity and overall demand, rather than merely its issuance schedule. This evolving perspective suggests a market less governed by past patterns and more by its inherent maturity and external economic factors, potentially allowing Bitcoin to 'cook its own timeline,' as trader George put it, indicating a future less constrained by cyclical expectations.

Institutional Influence and Global Liquidity as New Drivers

The diminishing influence of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle points to a significant shift in the cryptocurrency market dynamics, driven increasingly by institutional participation and broader global liquidity trends. As the market appears to bypass the expected 'euphoria phase' despite being well past its last major low, it underscores a transition from retail-driven speculation to a more sophisticated, institutionally-backed investment landscape. This evolution suggests that major financial entities and their capital flows are now playing a more decisive role in shaping Bitcoin's valuation and market behavior, moving away from predictable, cycle-bound patterns towards a more mature and integrated financial asset. The market's current subdued state, with quiet altcoins and poor sentiment, might be a direct consequence of this underlying structural change.

This new era suggests that Bitcoin's trajectory is no longer simply a function of its supply-side economics, such as halving events, but rather a reflection of macro-economic indicators and the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial system. The front-running of cycles by astute investors, as noted by Scott Melker, has effectively smoothed out the sharp peaks and troughs traditionally associated with Bitcoin's market. This implies that the 'euphoria phase' might be replaced by a more sustained, gradual growth fueled by continuous liquidity injections and institutional demand, potentially extending the bull market period beyond previous cycle timelines. Experts like Decode underscore this shift, positing that the halving is becoming a 'psychological relic,' with Bitcoin's valuation now primarily tracking global liquidity and overall market demand. This fundamental change necessitates a re-evaluation of investment strategies, emphasizing a deeper understanding of global economic trends and institutional flows rather than solely relying on historical cyclical patterns for future price predictions.

Novartis AG has recently unveiled groundbreaking data from its KALUMA Phase 3 study, highlighting the promising potential of KLU156 (GanLum), an experimental treatment for malaria. This innovative medication represents a significant stride in the global fight against this devastating disease, especially in an era marked by increasing drug resistance.

Novartis's New Malaria Treatment Shows Impressive Results

On November 13, 2025, Novartis announced compelling results from its KALUMA Phase 3 clinical trial for KLU156, a novel malaria treatment combining ganaplacide, a compound with a unique mechanism of action, and a new, once-daily formulation of lumefantrine. This dual-component therapy, developed in collaboration with Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), achieved its primary goal by demonstrating non-inferiority compared to the current gold-standard treatments.

The trial's findings revealed an impressive 97.4% PCR-corrected cure rate for GanLum, outperforming the 94.0% achieved by standard care. When analyzed through conventional per-protocol methods, these figures further ascended to 99.2% and 96.7% respectively. The study enrolled 1,688 adults and children, who received GanLum in a granular sachet format once daily for three days.

Further detailed analysis underscored GanLum's high effectiveness against mutant malaria parasites, which are increasingly responsible for partial drug resistance. The treatment also exhibited a swift impact on mature gametocytes, the parasitic stage crucial for transmission, suggesting its potential to curb the spread of malaria effectively. Importantly, the safety profile of GanLum was found to be consistent with existing treatments, with adverse events aligning with the underlying disease.

Professor Abdoulaye Djimdé, a distinguished expert in Parasitology and Mycology at the University of Science, lauded GanLum as potentially the most significant advancement in malaria treatment in decades. He emphasized its high efficacy against various forms of the parasite, including those developing resistance to current medications. Novartis is now actively pursuing regulatory approvals from health authorities, aiming to make GanLum available as soon as possible. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration had already granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug Designations to the combination therapy in 2022.

If approved, GanLum would mark the first substantial innovation in malaria treatment since artemisinin-based combination therapies were introduced over a quarter-century ago. This development follows Novartis's recent achievement in July, when Swissmedic approved Coartem (artemether-lumefantrine) Baby, the first malaria medication specifically sanctioned for newborns and young infants.

This pioneering research by Novartis offers a beacon of hope in the ongoing battle against malaria. The development of GanLum, with its potent activity against drug-resistant strains and its capacity to disrupt transmission, underscores the critical importance of continuous innovation in global health. Such advancements not only promise to save countless lives but also provide a renewed sense of optimism for eradicating a disease that has plagued humanity for centuries.