Architectural Cases

Senator Markwayne Mullin, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, has once again brought his investment activities into the spotlight with recent financial disclosures for November. These revelations include his largest stock acquisition of the current year, prompting renewed examination of his portfolio and its potential implications within the political landscape.

According to recent reports, Senator Mullin engaged in multiple stock market transactions on November 10th. His disclosed activities reveal the acquisition of shares in Capital One Financial Corp, valued between $50,000 and $100,000, and an investment in Pentair PLC, ranging from $15,000 to $50,000. Concurrently, he divested his entire holdings in CSX Corp and Zoetis, each transaction also falling within the $15,000 to $50,000 bracket. These strategic moves followed his substantial purchase of Microsoft Corporation shares earlier in the month, indicating a dynamic investment approach.

The financial dealings of Senator Mullin, particularly given his close association with former President Trump and his influential roles on various Senate committees, have consistently attracted considerable public and investor interest. His past conduct, including instances of delayed transaction reporting that violated the STOCK Act, has previously raised questions about transparency and adherence to regulatory standards. Such lapses underscore the heightened scrutiny applied to the financial activities of public officials.

Moreover, Mullin's committee assignments, which encompass the Appropriations, Armed Services, Indian Affairs, and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committees, further intensify the examination of his investments. His acquisition of shares in L3 Harris Technologies, a defense sector entity, was particularly noted due to his position on the Armed Services Committee. This raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, especially when investments are made in companies that could directly benefit from governmental decisions or policies influenced by his committee work. The recent purchases in Capital One Financial and Pentair will undoubtedly be observed closely for any indication of future government contracts or favorable treatment that might coincide with his political influence.

The continuing analysis of Senator Mullin's investment choices reflects broader discussions surrounding ethical conduct and transparency among elected officials. His trading patterns are under constant review, aiming to ensure that his financial decisions do not intersect inappropriately with his public duties or create perceptions of undue influence, especially as the nation approaches the 2026 political cycle.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) experienced a remarkable 119% increase in its stock value by late October, leading to discussions about the longevity of this growth, especially given the market's apprehension regarding a possible artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Despite a subsequent decline from its peak, the stock has recently exhibited a quantitative indicator that points to a promising upward trajectory. This analysis moves beyond conventional financial reporting by examining the foundational demand characteristics of AMD, suggesting that despite its current high valuation, further expansion is plausible given the nascent stage of generative AI technology.

Traditional investment perspectives often emphasize well-known business narratives, which, while logical, are likely already factored into AMD's stock price. To truly understand its future movement, it is essential to scrutinize price action and its changes over time. However, the dynamic nature of equity markets, influenced by various transient factors, can distort direct inferences from historical data. By employing a methodology that imposes a uniform condition by arranging continuous price data into multiple rolling windows, one can effectively decipher the underlying demand structure of a security.

This innovative approach allows for the calculation of the probability density function (PDF), which estimates the likelihood of a target stock price reaching a specific level within a fixed timeframe. This method illuminates the risk landscape, fundamentally altering how options trading strategies can be formulated. For instance, applying this technique to AMD's historical data, arranged in 10-week segments, suggests that future 10-week returns could fall between $215 and $245, assuming a starting point of $222.50, with a notable concentration of prices around $240.

This forecast is derived from analyzing all 10-week historical trials since January 2019, plotting the resulting percentage changes on a distributional curve using a kernel density estimation algorithm. More specifically, the current quantitative signal, characterized by a '6-4-D' sequence—six up weeks and four down weeks over the last 10 weeks, with an overall downward trend—is particularly significant. This sequence indicates a shift in market response, leading to a projected price range of $212 to $270, with the most frequent price point remaining at $240.

Understanding the geometry of risk for AMD is not only beneficial for identifying probability density but also for understanding probability decay. For example, the probability density for AMD's price decreases by 32.88% when moving from $240 to $250. This decay accelerates significantly, with an 80.41% reduction from $250 to $260, and a drastic 97.92% drop for the subsequent $10 interval. This insight is crucial for options traders utilizing multi-leg strategies, as it encourages the purchase of premiums for expected future values up to $250, where probability density remains high. Conversely, the rapid decline in density beyond $250 suggests selling this portion of the distributional curve.

While traditional time-based methods like fundamental and technical analysis offer valuable information, they can be prone to distortions caused by temporal factors. By holding time constant, distributional analysis enables a sharper focus on the inherent structural elements driving price movements, making options trading more straightforward. This analytical power provides a clear visual guide to actual demand, unadulterated by time-related influences, thereby facilitating more informed decisions aligned with an investor's risk tolerance.

For the astute and rational speculator, a bull call spread of $240/$250 expiring on February 20, 2026, presents an enticing opportunity. This strategy involves simultaneously purchasing a $240 call option and selling a $250 call option, resulting in a net debit of $315, which represents the maximum potential loss. If AMD's stock price surpasses $250 by the expiration date, the maximum profit could reach $685, translating to a return exceeding 217%. The breakeven point for this trade is $243.15, which aligns closely with the peak probability density.

A particularly appealing aspect of this trading strategy is the exponential reduction in the exceedance ratio of AMD stock beyond the $250 mark. This diminishing probability incentivizes the selling of this segment of the distributional curve, as the likelihood of its materialization is low. This judicious approach allows investors to allocate capital more effectively by prioritizing long positions with higher probabilities and divesting from premiums linked to less probable outcomes.