Raoul Pal Predicts Crypto 'Final Low' and Bullish 2026 Driven by Global Liquidity
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has confidently asserted that the cryptocurrency market has likely reached its definitive bottom, urging investors to adopt a steadfast holding strategy. His prediction is based on an anticipated massive wave of global liquidity set to infuse markets in 2026. Pal's "Everything Code" theory posits that the recent market downturn was a vital cleansing event, preparing the ground for the impending bullish cycle.
Pal's investment philosophy, detailed in a recent podcast, centers on a "do nothing" approach, particularly for retail investors who often incur losses through excessive trading or leverage in volatile conditions. He champions a "Minimum Regret Portfolio," advocating for concentrated investments in established Layer-1 blockchain platforms. According to Pal, these foundational networks are resilient and unlikely to collapse within a single market cycle, offering a safer alternative to riskier memecoins.
Contrasting the widely accepted four-year halving cycle, Pal projects a five-year cycle extending into 2026, primarily due to significant debt rollovers. He highlights that approximately $10 trillion in liquidity will be required to manage these rollovers, creating a fertile environment for risk assets. While many investors focus on prominent cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, Pal reveals a substantial overweight position in Sui, which he estimates is considerably undervalued compared to Solana, based on Metcalfe's Law models and stablecoin flows.
Pal acknowledges that Sui's success hinges on Mysten Labs' ability to demonstrate widespread adoption, but he views the current risk/reward profile as highly favorable. He further suggests that impending banking regulation adjustments signal a move by central banks, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury, to inject liquidity into the system. New regulations that allow banks to hold Treasuries with reduced risk weighting could unlock immense purchasing power.
Additionally, Pal anticipates a "perfect storm" for risk assets, fueled by potential fiscal stimulus measures, such as former President Donald Trump's proposed tax exemption on tips, and expansionary monetary policies in China. Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Zcash could also benefit from these developments. However, Pal advises caution with Zcash, stating he awaits a clear upward trend and a higher low before committing capital, to avoid merely rotating existing funds.
Looking ahead, Pal forecasts that the total crypto market capitalization could skyrocket to $100 trillion within the next decade. His outlook for 2026 is straightforward: the liquidity that receded in late 2025 is poised for a powerful resurgence. He urges investors to remain resilient and not to be swayed by market fluctuations, emphasizing that the current journey is only 3% complete.